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维基百科

地震預測

一月 01, 1970

此條目介紹的是地震发生前的预测。关于地震发生後發布警報的系统，请见「地震预警系统」。

地震預測（earthquake prediction）是預測一次地震發生的時間、地點和規模。地震學家目前仍無法預測地震的確切發生時間[1]，然而對地下構造瞭解的進步，科學家能透過震災危害度評估，提供特定規模的地震在未來數年到數十年之間，發生在某區域的機率，以供建築物和公共建設設定最低防震規範。雖然部份證據表明，對某些區域的地震預報或許有實用價值，然而這些技術的可靠性既未確立，也無法重製，所以地震學家及地質學家一般認為實用的地震預測還是夢想。

舊金山灣區震災危害度圖表，描繪了2032年前發生大地震的機率。

爭議 编辑

人們試圖以各種自然現象預測地震，例如電磁場、天氣狀況、地震雲、土壤或地下水的氡氣或氫氣含量、井水水位及動物行為等。

地震預測迄今仍深具爭議性；一方面是因為資料不足，另一方面則缺乏能證實上述因果聯繫的科學理論。此外，只要做出大量預測，便容易碰巧言中。大部分的預測方法都基於機率模型；由於大地震鮮少發生，其地點與時間又相當集中，目前我們很難鑑定一次「成功」的預測是否只是僥倖而已。

2009年拉奎拉地震發生後，幾位科學家因未能提出足夠警告，依過失殺人罪被判6年徒刑，在歐美科學界引發一片驚慌和撻伐之聲，學者警告這恐造成寒蟬效應。[2] 厄爾斯特大學（University of Ulster）地震物理學教授史迪西（Sandy Steacy）認為：「若維持原判，這項判決將對義大利和全歐洲的地震科學造成寒蟬效應。」科學工作者關懷聯盟（UCS）學者郝普恩（Michael Halpern）認為：「這項決定荒謬又危險，美國官員應該非難它，義大利總統乔治奥·纳波利塔诺（Giorgio Napolitano）應該推翻这个决定。」英國地質調查所（BGS）的穆森（Roger Musson）說：「這6名科學家說的是正確的，任何地震學家都會支持他們的說法。他們盡力提供科學的建議卻被判刑，這是錯的。」

預測方法 编辑

電磁波異常 编辑

實驗證明，岩石在破裂之前，會釋放出電磁波，然而對於如何影響到大的範圍仍有許多疑問；部份研究則認為是岩石內的石英受到壓力時產生的壓電效應所造成；也有人認為是由於地下水位的改變所引起。 [3]

Demeter微型衛星 编辑

Demeter（希臘神話的女神得墨忒耳）為地震區電磁放射偵測（英文："Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions"）的縮寫。Demeter衛星由法國國家太空研究中心建造，目前已觀察到某類低頻電磁活動與地震活躍帶的關係，並在2004年9月5日日本東海地方發生面波震级7.1地震前一週觀察到明顯的電離層活動及溫度變化[4]。

VAN方法 编辑

VAN 是一套由 Varotsos、Alexopoulos 與 Nomicos 三位希臘學者在1980年代提出的地震預測法。此法以埋入地下的金屬棍偵測地震電磁信號（英文：seismic electric signals），部份學者聲稱能預測大於五級的地震，震央誤差在100公里以內、震度誤差在0.7個單位內、時間窗口為2小時至11天。這個方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察[5]，此外也在日本激起一些科學上的興趣[6]。

水氡異常 编辑

指地下水中氡气含量的突然大幅度增加或减少。在多次大地震前已观测到这种现象，其原因可能是地应力的变化使岩石释放出一定量的氡气，从而导致地下水中氡气含量的变化。

地震活動型態的改變 编辑

前震 编辑

参见：地震序列

發生在相近時間或空間上的一連串地震，依照發生次序可分為前震 、主震和餘震，難以判別主震的地震序列稱之為群震。不同型態的地震序列是由於地殼非均質所引起許多大地震在來臨前，斷層破裂區域的地震活動會明顯的增加，最著名的案例為1975年的海城地震。

動物行為 编辑

根據民間傳說，一些動物能預知地震來臨，特別是貓、狗、雞、馬及其他小型動物；大型動物對此則較不敏感。[原創研究？]日本學者也曾對鯰魚的行為進行長期研究。[來源請求]

也有人主張動物的異常行為源於低頻電磁輻射信號。科羅拉多大學的學者證實石英岩斷裂時能藉壓電效應產生電磁活動。這類活動可於震前在斷層線上發生。根據最近的研究，電磁感應器能在統計學的意義上有效預測地震[7]

中國曾有系統地研究了動物的異常表現，並在1974年12月預測隔年二月發生的海城地震；然而該次預測主要是依靠一系列的強烈前震。關於動物行為的報導通常模稜兩可；目前還無法證明動物能預知地震，即使動物能感知P波，但地震儀對此更敏感[8]。

案例 编辑

中國 编辑

中國地震預測主要是基於震前的異常事件，例如地下水位、動物行為或前震等等。有报道与学者统计自1975年2月4日中國地震學家曾成功預報了遼寧省海城大地震[9]起，中国地震学家根据统计学与临震异常共预测成功并发布了短期、临震预报的地震共有28次[10][11]。包括了1990年9月22日北京小汤山4级地震[12]、1994年2月16日青海共和5.8级地震[13][14]、1995年7月12日云南孟连7.3级地震[15]、1997年4月6日新疆伽师6.3级、6.4级地震[16]、2003年云南大姚7月21日6.2级地震、10月16日6.1级地震[17]、2003年10月25日甘肃民乐6.1级地震[18]等。

但是1976年7月28日唐山大地震事前虽有中长期趋势判断，但并无短期、临震预报。造成當次地震242,769到655,237人死亡以及164,851人重伤；2008年5月12日的汶川大地震，同样也无短震、临震预报，最终造成69,227到300,000人死亡，374,643人受伤，17,923人失踪。

美國 编辑

2004年初，洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學由Vladimir Keilis-Borok帶領的一群科學家預言南加州九月將有一場與2003年San Simeo地震規模相當的地震，機率是百分之五十。

到了2004年4月，加州地震預報評估委員會（CEPEC）向州政府報告「預測並不可靠，而且涉及的地域廣大（12,400平方哩），所以這些結果不能作為加州採取特殊手段的正當理由。」[19]結果在預報的時間窗口內並無明顯地震。

義大利 编辑

2009年拉奎拉地震發生前一個月，一位名叫賈寶洛的實驗室技術人員，根據地面增加的放射性氡氣排放量，研判會有大地震發生。結果他被義大利民防單位指控危言聳聽，還被移送警方偵辦，罪名是製造民眾恐慌。而就在賈寶洛被移送的同時，官方的專家在拉奎拉召開會議，大量接受媒體訪問，保證說不會發生地震。官方的地震測報中心官員後來遭到民眾指控提供不正確的資訊，7名科學家被依過失殺人罪名、求處4年徒刑。

地震預警 编辑

更多信息：地震預警系統

地震的预警监测比地震預測更可靠，其原理是偵測P波；P波在地殼中的傳遞速度快過具破壞力的S波及雷利波，故可先期偵測。此法只能提早數秒（對於較深及較遠的大地震，或可達數十秒）预警。 現時有一套稱作 QuakeGuard™ [20] 的系統能用這套技術自動應變，以減少人員及財產損失。

加州大學的 Richard Allen 在發表於《自然》的一篇論文中聲稱：在地震發生的前幾秒，可以從地震儀的紀錄中預判地震大小[21]，它的結果還沒被其它學者認可。若然，則地震的早期預警將能更為有效。

參考文獻 编辑

  1. ^ Earthquake Prediction （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Ruth Ludwin, U.S. Geological Survey.
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  3. ^ Chi-Yu King. Earthquake prediction: Electromagnetic emissions before earthquakes. Nature. 1983, 301 (377). 
  4. ^ （法文）. [2006年10月22日]. （原始内容存档于2008年5月19日）. 
  5. ^ . [2008-05-13]. （原始内容存档于2008-02-08）. 
  6. ^ Seiya UYEDA, The VAN Method of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction,RIKEN International Frontier Program on Earthquake Research, Tokai University. [2004-11-01]. （原始内容于2004-11-01）. 
  7. ^ （英文）T. Bleier and F. Freund. Earthquake [earthquake warning systems]. Spectrum, IEEE. 2005年12月, 42 (12): 22–27 [2006年10月22日]. （原始内容于2007年9月22日）. 
  8. ^ Woith, Heiko; Petersen, Gesa M.; Hainzl, Sebastian; Dahm, Torsten. Review: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2018-04-17. doi:10.1785/0120170313. 
  9. ^ （英文）Glenn Richard. . Earth Science Educational Resource Center. 2001 [2006年10月22日]. （原始内容存档于2006年9月4日）.  石溪大學礦物物理研究所一個討論班的講義
  10. ^ 鲜为人知，这些都是中国成功预报的地震案例！. www.sohu.com. [2018-12-21]. （原始内容于2018-12-21）. 
  11. ^ 钱钢. 在地震预警问题的背后 (PDF). 《二十一世纪》双月刊 (香港中文大学). 2008, (108期): P104 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容 (PDF)于2018-12-21）. 
  12. ^ 王, 德功. 北京地区的地震与防震. 北京: 地质出版社. 2002: P21. ISBN 9787116030367. 
  13. ^ 夏玉胜. 共和5．8级地震的成功预报. 高原地震 (青海地震局). 1995, (1995年 第2期): P36-P41 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容于2018-12-21）. 
  14. ^ 张晓东. 马文静. 1994年2月16日共和5.8级地震短临预报实况. 地震 (中国地震局). 1995年, (1995年 第1期): P20-P28 [2018年12月21日]. （原始内容于2018年12月21日）. 
  15. ^ 李宣瑚、王瑜青. 1995年7月12日中缅边境7.3级地震预报成功. 国际地震动态. 1995, (1995年 第9期): P25、P26 [2018年12月21日]. （原始内容于2018年12月21日）. 
  16. ^ 朱令人. 1997年伽师地震临震预报的经验与启示. 华南地震. 1998年, (1998年 第4期): P9-P16 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容于2018-12-21）. 
  17. ^ 苏有锦. 2003年7月21日、10月16日云南大姚6．2级和6．1级地震预测预报回顾与讨论. 国际地震动态. 2004, (2004年 第1期): P18-P21 [2018年12月21日]. （原始内容于2018年12月21日）. 
  18. ^ 杨立明. 甘肃省民乐6．1级地震短期预报的简要回顾与启示. 国际地震动态. 2004, (2004年 第1期): P15-P17 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容于2018-12-21）. 
  19. ^ （英文）California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council. (PDF). 2002年3月 [2006年10月22日]. （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2008年5月27日）. 
  20. ^ （英文）. 1999 [2008-05-13]. （原始内容存档于2008-08-21）. 
  21. ^ （英文）Rachel Abercrombie. The start of something big?. Nature. 2005-11-09: 171 [2006年10月22日]. （原始内容于2006年6月29日）. 

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外部連結 编辑

  • 美國地質局對地震預測的觀點（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
  • 潮汐力與地震的相關研究：發表於1967（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）年與1968（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）年，然而 一文的觀點與之相左。
  • 唐山大地震背后的真相（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
  • 日本因预测地震仍有困难废除地震预知委员会（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
  • 《自然》文章称地震不可预测 或影响日本地震预报政策（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）

参见 编辑

一月 01, 1970
地震預測, 此條目介紹的是地震发生前的预测, 关于地震发生後發布警報的系统, 请见, 地震预警系统, 本條目存在以下問題, 請協助改善本條目或在討論頁針對議題發表看法, 此條目內容疑欠准确, 有待查證, 2018年2月20日, 請在讨论页討論問題所在及加以改善, 若此條目仍有爭議及准确度欠佳, 會被提出存廢討論, 此條目需要精通或熟悉相关主题的编者参与及协助编辑, 2018年2月20日, 請邀請適合的人士改善本条目, 更多的細節與詳情請參见討論頁, 此條目需要补充更多来源, 2018年2月20日, 请协助補充多方面. 此條目介紹的是地震发生前的预测 关于地震发生後發布警報的系统 请见 地震预警系统 本條目存在以下問題 請協助改善本條目或在討論頁針對議題發表看法 此條目內容疑欠准确 有待查證 2018年2月20日 請在讨论页討論問題所在及加以改善 若此條目仍有爭議及准确度欠佳 會被提出存廢討論 此條目需要精通或熟悉相关主题的编者参与及协助编辑 2018年2月20日 請邀請適合的人士改善本条目 更多的細節與詳情請參见討論頁 此條目需要补充更多来源 2018年2月20日 请协助補充多方面可靠来源以改善这篇条目 无法查证的内容可能會因為异议提出而被移除 致使用者 请搜索一下条目的标题 来源搜索 地震預測 网页 新闻 书籍 学术 图像 以检查网络上是否存在该主题的更多可靠来源 判定指引 地震預測 earthquake prediction 是預測一次地震發生的時間 地點和規模 地震學家目前仍無法預測地震的確切發生時間 1 然而對地下構造瞭解的進步 科學家能透過震災危害度評估 提供特定規模的地震在未來數年到數十年之間 發生在某區域的機率 以供建築物和公共建設設定最低防震規範 雖然部份證據表明 對某些區域的地震預報或許有實用價值 然而這些技術的可靠性既未確立 也無法重製 所以地震學家及地質學家一般認為實用的地震預測還是夢想 舊金山灣區震災危害度圖表 描繪了2032年前發生大地震的機率 目录 1 爭議 2 預測方法 2 1 電磁波異常 2 1 1 Demeter微型衛星 2 1 2 VAN方法 2 2 水氡異常 2 3 地震活動型態的改變 2 3 1 前震 2 4 動物行為 3 案例 3 1 中國 3 2 美國 3 3 義大利 4 地震預警 5 參考文獻 5 1 来源 6 外部連結 7 参见爭議 编辑人們試圖以各種自然現象預測地震 例如電磁場 天氣狀況 地震雲 土壤或地下水的氡氣或氫氣含量 井水水位及動物行為等 地震預測迄今仍深具爭議性 一方面是因為資料不足 另一方面則缺乏能證實上述因果聯繫的科學理論 此外 只要做出大量預測 便容易碰巧言中 大部分的預測方法都基於機率模型 由於大地震鮮少發生 其地點與時間又相當集中 目前我們很難鑑定一次 成功 的預測是否只是僥倖而已 2009年拉奎拉地震發生後 幾位科學家因未能提出足夠警告 依過失殺人罪被判6年徒刑 在歐美科學界引發一片驚慌和撻伐之聲 學者警告這恐造成寒蟬效應 2 厄爾斯特大學 University of Ulster 地震物理學教授史迪西 Sandy Steacy 認為 若維持原判 這項判決將對義大利和全歐洲的地震科學造成寒蟬效應 科學工作者關懷聯盟 UCS 學者郝普恩 Michael Halpern 認為 這項決定荒謬又危險 美國官員應該非難它 義大利總統乔治奥 纳波利塔诺 Giorgio Napolitano 應該推翻这个决定 英國地質調查所 BGS 的穆森 Roger Musson 說 這6名科學家說的是正確的 任何地震學家都會支持他們的說法 他們盡力提供科學的建議卻被判刑 這是錯的 預測方法 编辑電磁波異常 编辑 實驗證明 岩石在破裂之前 會釋放出電磁波 然而對於如何影響到大的範圍仍有許多疑問 部份研究則認為是岩石內的石英受到壓力時產生的壓電效應所造成 也有人認為是由於地下水位的改變所引起 3 Demeter微型衛星 编辑 Demeter 希臘神話的女神得墨忒耳 為地震區電磁放射偵測 英文 Detection of Electro Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions 的縮寫 Demeter衛星由法國國家太空研究中心建造 目前已觀察到某類低頻電磁活動與地震活躍帶的關係 並在2004年9月5日日本東海地方發生面波震级7 1地震前一週觀察到明顯的電離層活動及溫度變化 4 VAN方法 编辑 VAN 是一套由 Varotsos Alexopoulos 與 Nomicos 三位希臘學者在1980年代提出的地震預測法 此法以埋入地下的金屬棍偵測地震電磁信號 英文 seismic electric signals 部份學者聲稱能預測大於五級的地震 震央誤差在100公里以內 震度誤差在0 7個單位內 時間窗口為2小時至11天 這個方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察 5 此外也在日本激起一些科學上的興趣 6 水氡異常 编辑 指地下水中氡气含量的突然大幅度增加或减少 在多次大地震前已观测到这种现象 其原因可能是地应力的变化使岩石释放出一定量的氡气 从而导致地下水中氡气含量的变化 地震活動型態的改變 编辑 前震 编辑 参见 地震序列 發生在相近時間或空間上的一連串地震 依照發生次序可分為前震 主震和餘震 難以判別主震的地震序列稱之為群震 不同型態的地震序列是由於地殼非均質所引起許多大地震在來臨前 斷層破裂區域的地震活動會明顯的增加 最著名的案例為1975年的海城地震 動物行為 编辑 根據民間傳說 一些動物能預知地震來臨 特別是貓 狗 雞 馬及其他小型動物 大型動物對此則較不敏感 原創研究 日本學者也曾對鯰魚的行為進行長期研究 來源請求 也有人主張動物的異常行為源於低頻電磁輻射信號 科羅拉多大學的學者證實石英岩斷裂時能藉壓電效應產生電磁活動 這類活動可於震前在斷層線上發生 根據最近的研究 電磁感應器能在統計學的意義上有效預測地震 7 中國曾有系統地研究了動物的異常表現 並在1974年12月預測隔年二月發生的海城地震 然而該次預測主要是依靠一系列的強烈前震 關於動物行為的報導通常模稜兩可 目前還無法證明動物能預知地震 即使動物能感知P波 但地震儀對此更敏感 8 案例 编辑中國 编辑 中國地震預測主要是基於震前的異常事件 例如地下水位 動物行為或前震等等 有报道与学者统计自1975年2月4日中國地震學家曾成功預報了遼寧省海城大地震 9 起 中国地震学家根据统计学与临震异常共预测成功并发布了短期 临震预报的地震共有28次 10 11 包括了1990年9月22日北京小汤山4级地震 12 1994年2月16日青海共和5 8级地震 13 14 1995年7月12日云南孟连7 3级地震 15 1997年4月6日新疆伽师6 3级 6 4级地震 16 2003年云南大姚7月21日6 2级地震 10月16日6 1级地震 17 2003年10月25日甘肃民乐6 1级地震 18 等 但是1976年7月28日唐山大地震事前虽有中长期趋势判断 但并无短期 临震预报 造成當次地震242 769到655 237人死亡以及164 851人重伤 2008年5月12日的汶川大地震 同样也无短震 临震预报 最终造成69 227到300 000人死亡 374 643人受伤 17 923人失踪 美國 编辑 2004年初 洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學由Vladimir Keilis Borok帶領的一群科學家預言南加州九月將有一場與2003年San Simeo地震規模相當的地震 機率是百分之五十 到了2004年4月 加州地震預報評估委員會 CEPEC 向州政府報告 預測並不可靠 而且涉及的地域廣大 12 400平方哩 所以這些結果不能作為加州採取特殊手段的正當理由 19 結果在預報的時間窗口內並無明顯地震 義大利 编辑 2009年拉奎拉地震發生前一個月 一位名叫賈寶洛的實驗室技術人員 根據地面增加的放射性氡氣排放量 研判會有大地震發生 結果他被義大利民防單位指控危言聳聽 還被移送警方偵辦 罪名是製造民眾恐慌 而就在賈寶洛被移送的同時 官方的專家在拉奎拉召開會議 大量接受媒體訪問 保證說不會發生地震 官方的地震測報中心官員後來遭到民眾指控提供不正確的資訊 7名科學家被依過失殺人罪名 求處4年徒刑 地震預警 编辑更多信息 地震預警系統 地震的预警监测比地震預測更可靠 其原理是偵測P波 P波在地殼中的傳遞速度快過具破壞力的S波及雷利波 故可先期偵測 此法只能提早數秒 對於較深及較遠的大地震 或可達數十秒 预警 現時有一套稱作 QuakeGuard 20 的系統能用這套技術自動應變 以減少人員及財產損失 加州大學的 Richard Allen 在發表於 自然 的一篇論文中聲稱 在地震發生的前幾秒 可以從地震儀的紀錄中預判地震大小 21 它的結果還沒被其它學者認可 若然 則地震的早期預警將能更為有效 參考文獻 编辑 Earthquake Prediction 页面存档备份 存于互联网档案馆 Ruth Ludwin U S Geological Survey 意地震专家获刑 地震杀人还是科学家过失杀人 科学网 2012 10 31 2012 11 13 原始内容存档于2012 11 01 Chi Yu King Earthquake prediction Electromagnetic emissions before earthquakes Nature 1983 301 377 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