由于所在海域水温较高,风切变很少,气旋继续组织并强化[11],层次分明的风眼周围由深层对流层层环绕,北侧和南侧的外流持续走强[12]。10月23日,保罗在卡波圣卢卡斯(Cabo San Lucas)西南偏南方向约750公里洋面达到风力时速165公里的最高强度, 在萨菲尔-辛普森飓风等级下已属二级飓风标准[1]。受加利福尼亚州西岸近海的大规模低压槽影响,风暴转向西北偏北[13],之后又转向北上。受风切变和干燥空气增多的双重不利条件影响,保罗快速减弱[14],于10月24日降级成热带风暴,此时下层环流已同逐渐消亡的对流分离[15]。气旋接下来在从索科罗岛附近经过后转向东北[16]。虽然风切变还在节节攀升,速度超过每小时80公里,但保罗的西南部还是继续发展出深层对流并有环流保持,强度依然满足热带风暴标准。10月25日,风暴从南下加利福尼亚州最南端以南约160公里海域经过。[17]气旋加速朝东北方向前进,环流短暂同深层对流结合,但随着风暴逼近锡那罗亚州海岸,其中心又再度同上层环流脱节[18]。当晚,保罗在墨西哥近海弱化成热带低气压,然后转向北上[19]。次日清晨,已不含任何深层对流的热带低气压从锡那罗亚州西北角的阿尔塔穆拉岛附近登陆,数小时后,美国国家飓风中心针对逐渐消散的气旋发布最后一份公告[1][20]。
^ 1.01.11.2Jamie R. Rhome; Robert J. Berg. Hurricane Paul Tropical Cyclone Report (PDF) (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-11-20 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容 (PDF)于2015-10-02).
^ 2.02.1Stewart. Special Tropical Disturbance Statement (TXT) (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-19 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-03).
^Stewart. Tropical Weather Outlook (TXT) (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-20 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-08-15).
^Stewart. Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion One (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-21 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-10).
^Avila. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Two (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-21 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-11).
^Avila. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Six (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-21 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Beven. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Four (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-22 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-03).
^Rhome; Pasch. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Six (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-22 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-07).
^Franklin. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Five (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-22 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-05).
^Rhome; Pasch. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Seven (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-22 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-03).
^ 11.011.1Avila. Hurricane Paul Discussion Eight (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-23 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Franklin. Hurricane Paul Discussion Nine (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-23 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Rhome; Pasch. Hurricane Paul Discussion Ten (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-23 [2006-10-25]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Rhome; Pasch. Hurricane Paul Discussion Eleven (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-23 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Rhome; Pasch. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Fourteen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-24 [2006-10-25]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Rhome; Pasch. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Fifteen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-24 [2006-10-25]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Avila. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Seventeen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-25 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Rhome; Pasch. Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Nineteen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-25 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^ 19.019.1Blake; Franklin. Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Twenty (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-25 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Mainelli. Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Twenty-Two (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-26 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-03).
^Avila. Hurricane Paul Public Advisory Eight (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-23 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^ 22.022.1Avila. Hurricane Paul Public Advisory Thirteen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-24 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^Beven; Landsea. Hurricane Paul Discussion Sixteen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-25 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-11).
^Rhome; Pasch. Hurricane Paul Discussion Eighteen (Report). National Hurricane Center. 2006-10-25 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-03-12).
^ 25.025.1Frank Jack Daniels. Paul fades to tropical storm in run at Mexico. Reuters. 2006-10-25.
^ 26.026.1Frank Jack Daniels. Mexican resort third time lucky as storm misses. Reuters. 2006-10-25.
^Staff Writer. Hurricane Paul threatens southern Baja California. USA Today (Gannett Co.). Associated Press. 2006-10-24 [2016-08-15]. (原始内容于2016-08-16).